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Global Tactical Asset Allocation: Just the Facts, Part 1
We recently came across a couple of articles making the sensational claim that TAA is nothing more than a repackaged and dressed-up version of market timing. Both articles – and others, we’ve subsequently learned – point to a …
Keep ReadingA Century of Evidence for Mean-Variance Optimization: Can We Finally Declare Victory?
There’s really no nice way to say this, so we’ll just be plain: If mean-variance optimization (MVO) isn’t working for you, there’s a very good chance you’re doing it wrong. After all, we’ve been applying MVO with momentum-based estimates to manage live portfolios …
Keep ReadingOn the Dangers of Conflating Experience and Expertise
Ben Carlson at A Wealth of Common Sense published an article about how many investors conflate experience and expertise in markets. This is one of the most misunderstood aspects of the investment business, and costs investors billions each year.
Keep ReadingBernanke & Citadel, Politicians & Priests
There’s been much made of the recent move by Ben Bernanke accepting a position – less than a year after leaving his position as Chairman of the Fed – with hedge fund Citadel.
Keep ReadingWhy Skill Never Prevails in Your March Madness Pool: 2015 Update
This is an update to our article last year, contributed by David Gimpel and Matt Zerker, our resident NCAA fans.Last year on Gestaltu, we published an article about the various flaws of the conventional March Madness office pool. It’s a fun piece, and …
Keep ReadingWinning By Not Losing: Bootstrap Quantile Clouds
For most investors, financial risk is singularly defined as the probability of not reaching financial goals. As such, the sole objective of investing is to minimize this risk.
Keep ReadingThe Narrative is Reality
Back in the days when I still thought markets were driven by fundamentals I used to be a big fan of Don Coxe’s monthly commentaries. Don was at the epicenter of the commodity / BRIC narrative, and his commentaries were dense with historical context, pithy quotes, and compelling analysis.
Keep ReadingPete Carroll Is Not the Fool, I Am
Abundant ink has been spilled on the subject of Pete Carroll’s decision to pass on 2nd down from the 1 yard line in the Super Bowl two Sundays ago. Some have come out and bombastically stated that it was the WORST CALL IN SUPER BOWL HISTORY!! Others have concluded that, in fact, Carroll was entirely justified in the decision he made.
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