Defying the Bear’s Grasp: The Emotional Journey of Achieving Managed Futures Prosperity

In this blog post, we will explore the historical trends and performance of managed futures strategies using the Tech Crisis of 2000 to March 13, 2003 as a case study, and why it may be relevant for the current macro environment. We will also delve deeper into the emotional challenges that investors face during these periods.

Peering Around Corners: How to Replicate Trend Following Managed Futures

Our latest research paper explores the construction of a replication strategy that captures the broad exposures to equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies that are present in the Société Générale Trend Index, while also identifying the underlying strategies employed by trend-following managed futures funds. 

From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead

The endowment portfolio characterized by 60 percent in stocks and 40 percent in bonds has thrived over the past four decades, but sustained high inflation has the potential to lower returns and increase volatility in the years ahead. This has prompted an interest in All-Weather portfolios, which combine stocks and bonds with assets like commodities that may respond more favourably to inflation.

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Planning for Adverse Scenarios: Savings Edition

Let’s face it, it’s uncomfortable to acknowledge the fact that fate dominates many of the most meaningful outcomes in life. Take marriage for example. Raise your hand if you had planned in advance to meet the person you ended up marrying on the exact day you met them. No hands?

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Valuation Based Equity Market Forecasts – Q2 2013 Update

We endorse the decisive evidence that markets and economies are complex, dynamic systems which are not reducible to linear cause-effect analysis over short or intermediate time frames. However, we are willing to acknowledge the likelihood that the future is likely to rhyme with the past.

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Path Dependency in Financial Planning: Savings Edition

Imagine for a moment sitting at the kitchen table, steaming coffee in hand. The sun is streaming in the windows, bacon is popping in the pan, and Rover drops the paper at your feet. A brilliant Saturday morning by any measure, but today is extra special.

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The Most Important Concept in Wealth Management

Most investors miss the most important concept in wealth management because they are laser focused on returns as the primary benchmark of success. This propensity to chase returns is magnified during periods when markets are shooting the lights out, as investors become acutely aware of how their portfolio is performing relative to whatever index is attracting the most attention at the time.

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Triumph of the Ostriches

Throwing caution to the wind has been very profitable – so far. But if history is any guide, there are many reasons for investors to consider taking a much more cautious stance.

Here are the facts: according to every valuation metric that matters (i.e. with statistical significance through history), stocks are quite expensive.

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The Whole is Greater than the Sum of the Parts

One of the most mind-blowing implications of portfolio theory is that a well conceived portfolio has the potential to be much better, in terms of risk adjusted performance, than what we might expect from the sum of the individual portfolio holdings.

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What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away

The question of whether to commit new funds to stocks here is nuanced and complex, not least because it isn’t obvious that traditional alternatives – bonds or cash – offer any better value. We are very near all-time low interest rates across most developed government bond markets, credit spreads are near all-time tights, and rates are negative out to 5 or more years in real terms.

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Valuation Based Equity Market Forecasts – Q1 2013 Update

To be crystal clear, the commentary below makes no assertions about whether markets will carry on higher from current levels. Expensive markets can get much more expensive in the intermediate term, and investors need look no further back than the late 2000s for just such an example.

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About Us

ReSolve Asset Management Blog is an investment research forum, opinion pieces, and educational material from the team at ReSolve Asset Management. Our views are driven by evidence based finance, with a special focus on asset allocation, factors and smart beta, retirement and endowment strategies, and quantitative methods.

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