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Planning for Adverse Scenarios: Savings Edition
Let’s face it, it’s uncomfortable to acknowledge the fact that fate dominates many of the most meaningful outcomes in life. Take marriage for example. Raise your hand if you had planned in advance to meet the person you ended up marrying on the exact day you met them. No hands?
Keep ReadingValuation Based Equity Market Forecasts – Q2 2013 Update
We endorse the decisive evidence that markets and economies are complex, dynamic systems which are not reducible to linear cause-effect analysis over short or intermediate time frames. However, we are willing to acknowledge the likelihood that the future is likely to rhyme with the past.
Keep ReadingPath Dependency in Financial Planning: Savings Edition
Imagine for a moment sitting at the kitchen table, steaming coffee in hand. The sun is streaming in the windows, bacon is popping in the pan, and Rover drops the paper at your feet. A brilliant Saturday morning by any measure, but today is extra special.
Keep ReadingThe Most Important Concept in Wealth Management
Most investors miss the most important concept in wealth management because they are laser focused on returns as the primary benchmark of success. This propensity to chase returns is magnified during periods when markets are shooting the lights out, as investors become acutely aware of how their portfolio is performing relative to whatever index is attracting the most attention at the time.
Keep ReadingTriumph of the Ostriches
Throwing caution to the wind has been very profitable – so far. But if history is any guide, there are many reasons for investors to consider taking a much more cautious stance.
Here are the facts: according to every valuation metric that matters (i.e. with statistical significance through history), stocks are quite expensive.
Keep ReadingThe Whole is Greater than the Sum of the Parts
One of the most mind-blowing implications of portfolio theory is that a well conceived portfolio has the potential to be much better, in terms of risk adjusted performance, than what we might expect from the sum of the individual portfolio holdings.
Keep ReadingWhat the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away
The question of whether to commit new funds to stocks here is nuanced and complex, not least because it isn’t obvious that traditional alternatives – bonds or cash – offer any better value. We are very near all-time low interest rates across most developed government bond markets, credit spreads are near all-time tights, and rates are negative out to 5 or more years in real terms.
Keep ReadingValuation Based Equity Market Forecasts – Q1 2013 Update
To be crystal clear, the commentary below makes no assertions about whether markets will carry on higher from current levels. Expensive markets can get much more expensive in the intermediate term, and investors need look no further back than the late 2000s for just such an example.
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