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Predicting Markets, or Marketing Predictions
We know from studies of expert judgement that gurus who make nuanced predictions and hedge their bets attract much less attention than experts who spin dramatic predictions with unswerving confidence. As a result, firms are predisposed to encourage gurus to voice strong opinions and divergent views that stand out from the crowd.Keep Reading
Track Records are Rubbish (or Why Managers are Factors in Drag)
The investment management industry knows that you are influenced by percent symbols preceded by large numbers, so they market products with the best 1, 3 and 5 year track records, prominently featuring them in newspaper and TV advertisements, knowing that you will be unable to resist the urge to chase into those funds to avoid missing another year of riches.Keep Reading
Don’t Take Our Word For It
Long-time readers will know that we periodically publish a statistical forecast for U.S. stock market returns over horizons from 5 to 30 years, which we generate from a variety of long-term valuation metrics.Keep Reading
The Permanent Portfolio Turns Japanese
Our last few articles dealt with the Permanent Portfolio, a widely embraced static asset allocation concept proposed by Harry Browne in 1982. To review, the simple Permanent Portfolio consists of equal weight allocations to cash (T-bills), Treasuries, stocks and gold to ward against the four major financial states of the world…Keep Reading
Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part II
In Part I of the Permanent Portfolio Shakedown we investigated the history of the approach, tracing it back to Harry Browne in 1982. The company he helped to found, The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, has been running their version of the strategy in a mutual fund for almost 30 years, with fairly impressive results.Keep Reading
Permanent Portfolio Shakedown Part 1
The Permanent Portfolio is an asset allocation concept first introduced by Harry Browne in 1982. The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds website has this to say about the strategy, which they have been running in mutual fund format for about 20 years.Keep Reading